This season has been filled with promise and championship expectations. On paper, this Yankees roster is the most well-rounded since the 2009 World Championship team. But here they are, the 2025 Yankees, with their backs against the wall for the third time this postseason.

Will they be able to survive another day?

It’s too early to start thinking about the Yankees turning this series around, but if they take it one game at a time, anything is possible. The only way for them to do any damage in this series, though, is if they win tonight. Otherwise, it will be one of the most disappointing eliminations they’ve faced since 2009.

“We’ve got to take it to [the Blue Jays] when we get back to New York,” Aaron Judge said after his team lost Game 2. “We have to be able to score first and put the pressure on them to flip the script.”

The Yankees will send their hard-throwing lefty Carlos Rodón to the mound for a second straight postseason start with his team’s life on the line. He will go up against the righty Shane Bieber, who returned from Tommy John surgery this season and got traded to Toronto in July.

“[Rodón has] been one of our horses this year,” manager Aaron Boone said. “He’s had a great year, and any time we give him the ball, we feel like we have an excellent chance to win.”

Rodón enjoyed his best year in pinstripes this season, posting a 3.09 ERA in a career-high 33 starts. He also recorded a .188 batting average against, the lowest among American League starters. He helped the Yankees win their second game against Boston last Wednesday, and while his postseason ERA as a Yankee is 5.32, he must find a way to win again tonight.

“I think pitching in big games last year, and obviously, pitching in the World Series, it’s hard to replicate that [atmosphere],” Rodón remarked. “I learned fairly quickly last year that things need to be in check [in the playoffs to] save that energy for some extra innings down the road.”

Rodón must also be mindful of the success many of Toronto’s hitters have had against him, especially because of how hot their lineup is right now. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is 10-for-17 with a home run in his career against Rodón, holds a .667 batting average and a 1.933 OPS in this series. Alejandro Kirk, who is 3-for-11 in his career against Rodón, holds a .333 average and a 1.333 OPS in this series. Also, Daulton Varsho is riding a .750 average and a 2.653 OPS, and George Springer holds a .250 average and a 1.150 OPS.

Those stats aren’t surprising, considering the 10-1 and 13-7 scores by which Toronto has beaten the Yankees in this series. They’ve also outhomered New York 8-1. This shows how, despite their 40-41 road record and the 64 fewer runs they’ve scored on the road than at home this season, there’s still a good chance the Blue Jays will beat the Yankees up again in Game 3.

Throughout this series, Toronto’s stars have shone while the Yankees’ stars have wilted in high-pressure situations. When Guerrero had the bases loaded in Game 2, he hit a grand slam. When Aaron Judge had the bases loaded in Game 1, he struck out on a low splitter that never aligned with the zone. At the very least, the Yankees must score runs and do so early against Bieber, especially after striking out 11 times against Trey Yesavage in Game 2. This will help Rodón keep the Blue Jays’ bats at bay. Toronto isn’t going to stop scoring, so the Yankees must match their production.

The last time the Yankees lost an elimination game at Yankee Stadium, it was Game 5 of last year’s World Series. Offensively, they did everything right, especially in the early innings. But in the fifth inning, five unearned runs cost the Yankees the game and series. The pressure of New York extends beyond the batter’s box, so hopefully by now, the Yankees have learned the importance of staying locked in on every pitch, no matter which team is hitting.

Tonight is not allowed to be an embarrassment. The Yankees cannot go down without a fight.

Otherwise…

Starting Pitching:

Starting Lineups:

Bench: C Tyler Heineman, OF Nathan Lukes, OF Addison Barger, OF Myles Straw

Bullpen: LHP Justin Bruihl, LHP Mason Fluharty, LHP Eric Lauer, LHP Brendon Little, RHP Seranthony Domínguez, RHP Braydon Fisher, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Tommy Nance, RHP Yariel Rodríguez, RHP Louis Varland

Bench: C JC Escarra, INF Paul Goldschmidt, OF Jasson Domínguez, UT José Caballero, UT Amed Rosario

Bullpen: LHP Tim Hill, RHP David Bednar, RHP Paul Blackburn, RHP Fernando Cruz, RHP Camilo Doval, RHP Will Warren, RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Devin Williams

Game Odds (10/7, ESPN Bet):

*DISCLAIMER: Do not rely on these odds when placing a bet on this game. Numbers are subject to change. Must be 21+ and physically present in New York, New Jersey, or Missouri to participate. Gambling problem in New York: Call +1(800) 8-HOPENY. Gambling problem in New Jersey or Missouri: Call +1(800) GAMBLER.

The Yankees are projected to win tonight’s game by 56.0% (ESPN).

Umpires:

HP: Jordan Baker
1B: Tony Randazzo
2B: Dan Bellino
3B: Roberto Ortiz
LF: Chris Segal
RF: Adam Hamari

AccuWeather Gametime Weather: 74º, Cloudy, Wind S 10 mph

Venue: Yankee Stadium, 1 East 161st Street, Bronx, NY 10451

Coverage: FS1

Money Line: NYY -175 (ESPN Bet)

Schedule:

8:08 PM (7:08 PM CDT): 2025 American League Division Series (ALDS), Game 3: NYY (0-2) vs. TOR (2-0); FS1, FOXONE; SP: LHP Carlos Rodón (18-9, 3.09 ERA, 203 K) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57 ERA, 37 K)