Dodgers Land Skubal, but at What Cost?
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a generational superteam, but they also represent something we probably won’t ever see again.
The implications of the Tarik Skubal trade are heavy. So heavy that a lockout is now effectively guaranteed next season.
Small-market teams want a greater chance at success, and Major League Baseball wants more money, which is why both parties are eager for a salary cap.
And nobody wants one more than the Detroit Tigers.
The catch behind the Skubal deal is that the Tigers fully controlled the narrative. They could have easily demanded more than three minor leaguers, no matter how valuable they viewed the Dodgers’ #5, #7, and #17 prospects. They could have fielded more offers, raised the asking price, and waited until Monday’s deadline. But they didn’t.
Skubal is the two-time reigning Cy Young Award winner. He won the fourth American League pitching triple-crown awarded this century. For context on Skubal’s value, back in January, the Tigers asked the Yankees for Ben Rice, Cam Schlittler, and George Lombard Jr. in exchange. Sure, they weren’t sellers at the time, but Skubal is still one of the best pitchers in the world.
To be clear, I’m not blaming the Dodgers for what happened. They consistently make the right trades and sign prized free agents not just because they can afford it, but because they have an insatiable desire to win that other teams can’t seem to match. But again, if this was Detroit’s asking price for their superstar ace, other teams could have definitely matched the Dodgers’ offer.
The fact that Detroit was so willing to hand Skubal over to Los Angeles makes it look like they are spearheading the salary cap movement. The Ilitch family might even support the Dodgers’ three-peat pursuit because they know that if they win the World Series again this year, it will make the argument for a salary cap even more compelling.
Owners, especially in smaller markets, want a salary cap to keep their team relevant. They want to be in the fold every year and contend for top free agents. The local media deal crisis magnifies this issue because it removes a key source of revenue for less profitable franchises, such as Milwaukee and St. Louis.
But a cap cannot come without a salary floor, which the league would love because it would force every team to spend above a certain threshold. This would expand long-term revenue because franchise valuations would increase, as would media deals and sponsorship rights.
Again, a cap cannot come without a floor, which plenty of owners would protest by circumventing the floor, cutting costs, and raising ticket, merchandise, and broadcast fees.
Nevertheless, the league would kill for both a floor and a cap because, unlike their NFL, NBA, and NHL counterparts, they struggle to turn a yearly profit, and added competitive parity would increase league value.
Ultimately, three facts exist:
The league wants, and is even desperate for, a salary cap. Adding a floor would be even better.
Owners want a cap but would likely refuse a floor. Yet forcing a cap would cause a lockout or strike.
Players stand firmly against a cap, but would support a floor. If a cap is implemented, they will strike profusely, even if a lockout occurs first.
Remember, the MLBPA will not support a cap, which means a lockout or strike is effectively guaranteed if the owners continue to push for one. And a shortened (or cancelled) baseball season instantly slashes short-run revenue for all 30 teams, which makes the Tigers’ decision even more perplexing.
So why would they push this hard for a salary cap?
The only answer I can offer is that they are so fed up with the current financial model that they will do whatever it takes to get their way, even if it means gifting the Dodgers their third straight World Series title.
