GAME NIGHT: 2026 ALDS, Game 1 – NYY at TB; TBS, TRUTV, HBO MAX
Yankees fans seem awfully confident coming off a modern-day Boston Massacre.
But it will not be the same against the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays, especially since the ALDS begins at the Trop.
And the Yankees won’t have Aaron Judge.
The Yankees are 2-5 at Tropicana Field this season. At 55-26, the Rays have the best home record in the American League. The Trop is unique because of its dome and artificial turf, and the Rays have embraced their awkward building after a hurricane destroyed it last season.
Instead of thanking the Yankees for letting them use George M. Steinbrenner Field last year, the Rays won the 2026 season series 7-6 and celebrated their division title at Yankee Stadium. That irked the Yankees, who, like the Rays, were excellent in August and September as they pushed for the division crown.
Drew Rasmussen took the mound for Tampa Bay as they clinched the division title. The righty shut down the Yankees, striking out 11 batters over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one run on one hit.
His 2.86 ERA against the Yankees doesn’t tell the whole story. However, it does indicate that they have had some success against Rasmussen. On July 9, they beat the Rays 12-4 in a defining game that ended the Yankees’ “June Swoon.” They scored six runs off Rasmussen in less than three innings. They haven’t visited the Trop since.
Overall, the Rays have an inherent advantage over the Yankees because they get to play three of the five games at home, and their team is fully rested. But unlike last season, and unlike most seasons, the Yankees have a deep rotation, with Gerrit Cole making his first postseason start tonight.
Also, they may not have had as much rest, but the Yankees’ bats heated up in the Wild Card Series. They outscored the Red Sox 18-2 in their two-game sweep. The Yankees cracked Payton Tolle and Sonny Gray, two pitchers they struggled against in the regular season. But it’s harder to solve a pitcher on the road, especially in Tampa.
Yes, the Rays were the best home team in the American League this season, but at 47-34, the Yankees were the best road team. The Rays earned eight more home wins than the Yankees did on the road, but the feat remains impressive.
Next, Cole has struggled with home runs since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has allowed at least one home run in four straight starts and in six of his last seven. Keep an eye on Yandy Díaz tonight, who has a .340 average in 54 career plate appearances against Cole.
But in 22 career postseason starts, Cole is 11-6 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He knows what it takes to win in October, and he’ll surely have a chip on his shoulder tonight after allowing five unearned runs in his last postseason start. That night, the Yankees lost the World Series, and Cole lost his arm. He underwent Tommy John surgery four months later.
Furthermore, the Rays hit 169 home runs this season, the ninth-fewest in baseball, while the Yankees hit 223, the second most. This discrepancy benefits Cole’s home run woes. Also, long balls typically account for 44% to 49% of postseason runs, a much higher mark than in the regular season.
The Rays thrive off small ball and speed, so hopefully the Yankees slow them down. Historically, defensive miscues have cost the Yankees in the postseason. They have struggled to prevent runners from stealing bases and turning singles into doubles, and they have never been able to emulate that strategy.
But in the Wild Card Series, notably in Game 2, small ball and speedy baserunning, like Trent Grisham bunting unexpectedly or Spencer Jones sprinting to reverse a strikeout, fueled their rallies. They’ll have to keep that up once again without their captain.
When the Yankees embarrassed themselves in Toronto in the first two games of last year’s ALDS, giving up double-digit runs in each game, it was largely due to their lack of starting pitching depth. Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and Cam Schlittler all pitched in the Wild Card Series, so Luis Gil got the ball in Game 1.
This year, the rotation is stronger. The Yankees enter the ALDS with a fresh Cole and Rodón. With the off day after Game 1, Schlittler will start Game 2 on extended rest. And because he and Fried pitched so well against Boston, the bullpen is in excellent shape.
Even without Judge, the Yankees have what it takes to defeat Tampa Bay. They have enough talent and resilience. But they cannot afford to return to the Bronx down 2-0 like last year. However it happens, the Yankees must leave St. Petersburg with a split.
Tampa Bay is expected to win this game by 58.4% (ESPN).
Venue: Tropicana Field, 1 Tropicana Drive, St. Petersburg, FL 33705
Schedule
6:30 PM (5:30 PM CDT): 2026 ALDS, Game 1 – NYY at TB; TBS, TRUTV, HBO MAX; SP: RHP Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61 ERA, 131 K) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 174 K)
